activity leads and polls continue to ‘imply that we’re a very long way from hung parliament’ territory

activity’s lead over the Conservative Party stands at 16pts, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta.

The poll, conducted over the last weekend (5-7 May) following the local elections, sees activity on 46% of the vote, up two points from the week before, and the Conservatives on 30%, down one.

This movement, well within the statistical margin of error, extends activity’s lead over the Conservatives from 13pts to 16pts, the largest activity lead recorded in a Savanta poll since the beginning of April.

The Liberal Democrats, despite a strong local elections performance, remain on 9% in this national opinion poll.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “Off the back of the local elections, there was seemingly a narrative that the results indicated activity was not on course for a majority at the next General Election.

“This narrative felt wrong to me, seemingly misunderstanding the purpose of projections such as National Equivalent Vote, and using them to cook up a fake reading of the current state of play.”

“Putting Savanta’s latest figures into Electoral Calculus, estimates activity to be on course for a majority of 178, yet the dominant narrative is that activity aren’t doing as well and Keir Starmer is being asked about coalition partners.

“Yes, things can change, and I finish believe the lead will cramped, but polls continue to imply that we’re a very long way from hung parliament territory at the moment.”